Ontech Solutions · Proposal

From cooperative brochure to grower's decision tool.

The website recruits people who have already decided to grow avocados. It says almost nothing to the person still deciding — or to the household with mature trees dropping fruit on the ground. This page sets out three tools that close that gap, and demonstrates the engine behind them.

The gap

Who the site does not speak to

The value proposition to a committed grower is complete — aggregation, grading, transparent pricing, shares, a member portal. That only converts someone who has already made the hard decision.

1 · The undecided grower

Lands on four invitations to become a member, and no answer to the questions that come first: can my land grow this, what will it cost, and when do I see money back? The funnel assumes the decision is already made, so every undecided visitor leaves.

2 · The grower who doesn't know they are one

Households and farms across Lusaka have mature trees planted years ago for shade or the pot, with fruit rotting each season. They don't identify as "avocado farmers", so nothing on the site is addressed to them — though they are the fastest members to onboard, with fruit ready this season.

3 · The missing numbers

No price range per grade, no yield expectation per tree, no spacing, no pollination guidance, no seasonality calendar. The tools below need this data anyway — so producing it does double duty: it fills the content gap and powers the tools.

Proposal 1 & 2 · working prototype

The engine, running

One model — trees × age × variety × price — behind two front doors. "What are my trees worth" is the discovery door; "planning to plant" is the same engine projecting forward, including the J-curve that prospective growers consistently underestimate.

Read this before you read a number below. This calculator asks you for the price per kilogram, and it will not compute until you supply one. That is deliberate. The cooperative has not yet issued a farm-gate price schedule (TOR §4.1(d)), so any price shown here would be one Ontech invented — and a grower would plant trees on it. The yield shape (a grafted tree bears around year 3–4 and approaches full production around year 8) is standard avocado horticulture. The kilograms are yours to set. Every output is arithmetic on your own figures, and is an estimate, not a forecast or a guarantee of income.
A mature tree's full-season yield. Varies enormously with water, soil and management. Ask a grower you trust — this is not a figure Ontech should be giving you.
The cooperative has not published a grade price schedule. Enter the price you are actually offered.
Enter a price per kg to calculate.
Proposals 3 & 4 · shipped

The two tools that needed nothing from the Board

The land check and the drainage pit test depend on no cooperative data, so they are built, live, and public — under a name a farmer would actually search for.

Land check

Ten years of real rainfall, temperature, wind and soil moisture for any point in Zambia, from ERA5-Land reanalysis. Rules areas out; never rules a plot in — the grid is ~8 km, which we measured rather than assumed.

Drainage pit test

A real state machine with a real clock that walks a grower through a proper percolation test and reads the result. It is the only thing on the site that measures the grower's actual plot — so it outranks everything else.

Sequencing

Order of build, and what unblocks it

  1. Tree valuation & variety ID — the discovery door

    Works from what a grower already knows: tree count, rough age, variety. No new data infrastructure. It reaches Gap 2 — the households already sitting on income — who are the fastest members to onboard because their fruit is ready this season. Variety ID starts as a static photo guide (Hass vs Fuerte vs seedling); photo upload comes later.

  2. Cash-flow projection — the planning door

    Same engine, projecting forward, showing the J-curve honestly: money out for three to four years before the crossover. Showing the wait builds trust and filters out the growers who would quit in year two. Ships when the price schedule exists.

  3. Land suitability — exclusion only

    Most work (map UI plus geospatial lookups), weakest claim, and the one that carries reputational risk if overstated. Decide it last.

All three are blocked on the same thing. Farm-gate price per grade and variety; expected yield by tree age for Hass, Fuerte and seedling; recommended spacing. Ideally also the six-year production forecast issued to ALGEO SRL on 24 September 2021, which the Strategic Plan references but which has not been supplied. This is TOR §4.1(d) — it is a meeting with the Board, not a sprint. Until it lands, the prototype above runs on the user's own numbers, which is the only honest way it can run.